1-Internal marketing decisions
• Price structure
• Distribution channels
• Promotional plans
• Overall product mix 1
2-Supply chain
• Raw material costs
• Transportation costs
• Materials availability
• Quality or production methods of supplied components
3- Competition
• Competitors or one’s own organization’s - market shares
• New product introductions by competitors
• New entries into territories by competitors
4- Customer base
• Customer attitudes
• Competing needs
• Customer demographic
5- Macroenvironment
• Upturn or downturn in economy
• Inflation
• Political events
• Weather (especially for seasonal products)
• Two main forecast categories:
Qualitative Quantitative
1- Qualitative Methods
• Sales force composite polling.
Each salesperson forecasts his or her own performance, and the estimates are aggregated to create an overall forecast. This process benefits from the knowledge of those working most directly with the customer base, but their predictions may be overly optimistic or pessimistic and may not take larger market forces sufficiently into consideration.
• Executive opinion.
Views of executives throughout the organization in production, marketing, administration, etc. as well as in sales are gathered to gain a consensus opinion that can take a broader range of forces into consideration. Salesforce
• Delphi method.
This method aims to prevent a dominant personality from unduly shaping the consensus. Executives are polled individually, their responses are summarized for the group, and the process is repeated until consensus is reached.
"The Delphi method is a forecasting process framework based on the results of multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to a panel of experts. After each round of questionnaires, the experts are presented with an aggregated summary of the last round, allowing each expert to adjust their answers according to the group response. This process combines the benefits of expert analysis with elements of the wisdom of crowds" Source "Investopedia"
• Market surveys.
These customer assessments can apply statistical methodology to define changing customer behaviors and responses to market forces, but they require subjective judgment to apply to the forecast.
• Environmental scanning.
This includes a broad range of activities for examining the industry and macroenvironmental forces at work.
2- Quantitative Methods
Historical (Time Series) : Smoothing & Decomposition (De-Seasonalizing)
Associative (Regression)
- https://www.mbassett.com/blog/internal-marketing
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/supplychain.asp
- https://www.mapbusinessonline.com/Solution.aspx/Competitor-Territory-Mapping
- https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/knowledge/economics/macro-environment/
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